The line opened at 3.5 on Sunday and immediately moved to 4 and eventually up to 5.5 and has settled at 5 as of Saturday night 8pm pacific time. When I learned of the matchup, I made the Colts a 6 point favorite. I was a little shocked that they opened as only a 3.5 point favorite. With the Colts settling in as a 5 point favorite, their is no real value bet. If Tony Dungy were the Coach of the Colts I would be all over the Saints plus the 5. Now that Peyton Manning is the Coach it isn't quite that easy. Yeah, I said it, Peyton Manning is the coach. Did you see him step on the accelerator against the Jets at the end of the game last week? Dungy wouldn't have done that in a million years. He would have run the ball and kicked field goals until it made you sick.  Peyton Manning puts a completely different spin on the spread. He isn't going to run run pass when he has a 4 point lead. If you like the Saints you better be thinking about that. Manning was visibly upset in the last Super Bowl when he didn't get Harrison a TD in the Super Bowl. He could have done so at the end of the game but Dungy insisted on running up the gut and kicking the field goal. 

Why like the Colts -5?

First of all you are getting what I believe to be the greatest Quarterback to play the game. I think the guy could knock a quarter out of the air from 25 yards away. He might be the smartest Quarterback that has ever played and he just shredded the number one defense in the NFL. The Saints just beat a Vikings team in overtime by kicking a field goal after the Vikings turned the ball over 6 times. I'm not even sure how many times they were in the red zone when they were the beneficiary of those turnovers. You have to believe that Manning and company will do the Saints no such favor on Sunday. If you are the beneficiary of 6 turnovers you would think you would be able to win the game by more than 3 points in over time, wouldn't you? Peyton reads defenses and if you get him once on a blitz, you better not show that same package again, because he will beat you the second time, every time. Finally one of the best reasons to like the Colts is that Manning won't run run pass with a small lead. He will go for the jugular as he did 2 weeks ago against the Jets. It's awful tough not to like the Colts here. But I'll play devils advocate below.

Why like the Saints +5?

I'm not going to get in to the Freeney injury. I don't believe that one guy will make that much of a difference. He isn't Lawrence Taylor. However, it is nice to not have him in the game. Considering the severity of the injury, it sounds like he has no business being on the field. Enough said about Freeney, this shouldn't be your deciding factor. What I find very interesting about the Saints and the 5 points is that the Colts have had trouble with one team historically. This team seems to have their number and the Saints are almost identical to this team. If you haven't guessed which team I'm talking about by now, it's the San Diego Chargers. The Saints and Chargers are almost identical, both offensively and defensively. Both teams throw to numerous receivers, both teams have explosive running and both teams have outstanding QB's. Hmmm? This is the single reason I like the Saints and the points. It's a big reason remember when Sanchez threw the 80 plus yard TD pass to a wide open receiver. Where was the coverage? If Sanchez did it, what will Brees do? 

Last year we had a lot of fun with the prop bets out there. Below I have a list of the prop bets that I like for this year's Super Bowl.

1. Drew Brees longest Completion over 38.5 yards- If Sanchez found someone wide open down field, Brees will too.

2. Reggie Bush total receiving yards over 31.5. I look for Reggie to get the ball via the pass often in this game. I think he goes well over the 31.5 yards.

3. Reggie Bush longest reception over 12.5- He will break a screen pass for over 12.5 yards.

4. Marques Colston total receptions over 4.5. Colston is too big too fast and will go well over 4.5 receptions.

5. Marques Colston total receiving yards over 74.5. Colston will have a big game. 

6. Robert Meachem will score a touchdown +240. I love the plus 240 on this one. Colston and Henderson will be blanketed in the red zone and Meachem will find the end zone. 

7.  Joseph Addai over 63.5 yards rushing. Addai will carry the ball enough to go over the 63.5 yards.

8. Reggie Wayne receiving yards over 77.5. Reggie will have a big game.

9. Reggie Wayne will score a Touchdown. Absolutely!

10. Austin Collie receptions over 3.5. Collie will get enough dinks and dunks to go over 3.5

11. Total number of different Saints to have a pass reception. The line is over 7.5 and I think that this will go over that number.

12. Saints total rushing yards over 100.5. Reggie could break one for 50 himself and that would make this number go over easily.

13. First touchdown  of the game will be a passing touchdown -200 any other is +160. I'll take the +160 and hope we get a pass interference penalty in the end zone.

14. Will both teams make a 33 yard or longer field goal? Yes is +150. I'll go with yes. I would think that both teams will make a field goal of over 33 yards.

That's all I have for you. I wish you the best in your wagers today. Please drive safely and thank you for visiting Freefootballpicks.com. I'll see you in August.