It's the last game of the year and I could probably write 10 pages on this game but I'll give you everything that's important that I see and let you know what I'm doing.
 
    Although the Patriots are a cold weather city they are a built more as a warm weather team. They haven't played in a game that's been over 50 degrees since they played the Colts at Indianapolis. I'm sure that the Arizona temperatures are going to be a welcome site for all. 
 
    I had a chance to watch the week 16 game between the Giants and Pats 2 more times since the game was played. The Giants played good ball for 2 quarters and around 5 minutes. That was until they scored their 28th point. The Patriots then began to blitz Manning. The game changed drastically after that. They got to Manning for a 15 yard loss and continued to pressure him. He looked like a different quarterback for the rest of the game. The Pats then took a 10 point lead late in to the 4th quarter. Manning managed to drive them down for a score but only because the Pats defender fell down in the end zone. It looked as if the Patriots may have been taken by surprise and didn't really game plan for the Giants thinking that the game was meaningless to the Giants and they would pull their starters out early. 
 
The Giants:
 
    They have won their last 3 games as 3, 7 and 7.5 point dogs. The first 2 wins were impressive and I wasn't really surprised that they happened. The win over the Packers was as impressive as you can get. It was their 3rd straight road game and these weren't regular season games. Playoff games are harder hitting more intense and to win that 3rd game on the road is a feat that shouldn't go unnoticed or taken lightly. Manning is playing as well as he has played in his career.
 
The Patriots:
 
    They haven't covered in their last 5 games. The public hates them and the fact that they aren't covering doesn't make it any better for them. I had a hard time figuring out the strategy last week against the Chargers. I watched that game again last week. Moss was wide open a number of times and Brady didn't throw him the ball. It was strange to say the least. You have to wonder why this would happen. Is this some sort of a plan? Moss has been invisible in the playoffs. Jacksonville double teamed him but the Chargers didn't. Moss could have gone for over 100 easily against the Chargers.
 
Summary:
 
    The Patriots have won their 2 playoff games by 11 and 9 points. Even more important they beat the 2 hottest teams in football in the Jaguars and the Chargers. Even more impressive is these two teams are playing in the toughest division in football. 
    The Giants defeated the Bucs a team that came in to the playoffs with losses to San Fran and Carolina. They then defeated the Cowboys a team that was lucky to beat the Lions by 1 point, they lost to the Eagles, beat the Panthers by 7 in a game they could have lost and then got destroyed by the Redskins 27-6. Not a very impressive record for a #1 seed.  The Giants win against the Packers was the most impressive as it was their 3rd straight road victory. The Packers refusal to blitz Manning was their downfall and the game went to over time to decide the winner.
    The Patriots are again a 12 point favorite over the Giants. The Pats have been double digit favorites the last 5 games and have yet to cover. Let's stop to think about this for a minute. Let's stop and think about the guys that make these lines. They do this for a living. I know they come up with some bad lines occasionally but very rarely will you see a bad number in a Super Bowl or any game that is singled out. The Patriots were a 13 point favorite on the road against the Giants and only won by 3 points. Why did they make them a 13 point favorite on a neutral field when they squeeked out a 3 point victory only 3 weeks ago? Remember the Patriots have never covered as a favorite in the Super Bowl. I believe the odds makers think that the Giants are playing again on the road for the 4th time in 5 weeks. They have been playing weak competition throughout the playoffs and now the Giants have to play the real deal. I'm in agreement with the odds makers. I think this is going to be one of the more lopsided Super Bowls in recent history. I think the Giants won't score more than 10 points. The Patriots defense hasn't given up a touchdown since the middle of the 2nd quarter in the Jaguars game. I think they are going to be relentless when it comes to pressuring Manning which is going to force him to turn the ball over. I'm taking the Patriots and laying the points whatever they are I don't care for 5000 units. I'm also playing a small parlay to the under for 500 units. The reason I'm taking the parlay to the under is because I feel strongly that the Giants won't score over  10 points. The Patriots will have to score 44 to beat me which isn't out of the question. I like the Pats big but it's the NFL, you can do all the home work you like and still be left standing there scratching your head. It's very difficult laying this many points as you know the back door will be wide open. Good Luck.
Until next year, may all of your plays be winners and may the back door always be locked!